I am so sorry to hear of this and to hear of the pain. I know how much you desire to be with her and love her, and as you can see she does have a lot to work through and most likely needs to do that on her own. So hard for you to let go a bit and give that space but it is the only way as if she feels pushed...even if unintentional on your part, she will just become more and more distant. There is plenty of time before Christmas before the move, so it is early to tell whether that will happen. But for now, give her the space she is requesting and it is possible with the space and time to process it all, that she misses you, misses your love and consistency and desires to be back. So, yes there is a chance but most likely only if you give her the space to work through it on her own.
You are a loving gentleman. Yes, I would send her a text that says something like....I am giving you the space you have requested, but did not want to let your special day go by without wishing you a wonderful day.
then let things go as you say and see how it all plays out.
I am so glad and glad she reached back out. Focus o you now and let her do the same and I hope it all goes how you desire. I am here again if you need me.